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Scheda Riassuntiva
Anno Accademico 2018/2019
Scuola Scuola di Ingegneria Industriale e dell'Informazione
Insegnamento 095118 - TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND RESEARCHING FUTURE
Docente Kucharavy Dzmitry
Cfu 6.00 Tipo insegnamento Monodisciplinare

Corso di Studi Codice Piano di Studio preventivamente approvato Da (compreso) A (escluso) Insegnamento
Ing Ind - Inf (Mag.)(ord. 270) - BV (477) ENERGY ENGINEERING - INGEGNERIA ENERGETICA*AZZZZ098504 - TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND RESEARCHING FUTURE
Ing Ind - Inf (Mag.)(ord. 270) - BV (478) NUCLEAR ENGINEERING - INGEGNERIA NUCLEARE*AZZZZ098504 - TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND RESEARCHING FUTURE
Ing Ind - Inf (Mag.)(ord. 270) - BV (479) MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING - INGEGNERIA GESTIONALE*AZZZZ095118 - TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND RESEARCHING FUTURE
Ing Ind - Inf (Mag.)(ord. 270) - BV (483) MECHANICAL ENGINEERING - INGEGNERIA MECCANICA*AZZZZ098504 - TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND RESEARCHING FUTURE
095118 - TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND RESEARCHING FUTURE
Ing Ind - Inf (Mag.)(ord. 270) - MI (475) ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING - INGEGNERIA ELETTRICA*AZZZZ098504 - TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND RESEARCHING FUTURE
095118 - TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND RESEARCHING FUTURE

Obiettivi dell'insegnamento

How one can design a new product / service without knowing future needs and limitations? What is the prescient knowledge that provides competitive advantages? 

Prediction of socio-technological changes. It is supposed to proceed with the definition of the main features of technology. Therefore, we will proceed with a detailed discussion of the problems of forecasting. A particular method "Researching Future" and its main techniques will be introduced. The course will then show the possible integration with the process of inventive problem solving, innovative design and strategic planning activities.

In conclusion, we introduce the techniques to support a practical forecasting process.

Practical workshops will be divided into individual and group exercises.


Risultati di apprendimento attesi

Students passing the exams are capable:
- to recall and recognize modern systems for technology forecasting
- to employ the methodology of fitting time-series data with the logistic S-curve model
- to employ methodology for building map of contradictions 
- to construct an interpretation of results for strategic decision-making


Argomenti trattati

Introduction: why do we need to forecast socio-technological changes, alternatives to forecasting, product evolution cycle, scope of technology forecasts, strategic planning and forecasting, from uncertainties to reliable forecasting?

Contemporary Methods of technology forecasting: methods of methods, types of forecasts, classifying the forecasting methods, combination of methods.

The use of forecasting methods in practice: what is technology, technology and the environment, and roadmaps of technology changes; fifty years prediction for energy technologies.

Researching Future methodology: basic concepts, main characteristics of the method, process of study about future, applied techniques and knowledge.

Forecasting - its application, advantages and limitations: failures of technological forecasting.

 


Prerequisiti
  • The maximum number of admitted students is 60
  • Consistent knowledge in using office software (eg MS Word, MS PowerPoint); practical skills for data and information retrieval.
  • Basic practical knowledge for applying spreadsheets (eg Excel) for data analysis; basic knowledge in statistics (eg regression analysis).
  • Basic knowledge about the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation and presentation of data.
  • No extra courses and duties during the course.

Modalità di valutazione

Th course is delivered in two intensive weeks, in the first half of June and in the first half of July. Lectures and practicse sessions are held morning and afternoon five days a week. The participation to the lectures is mandatory.

The exam consists of one individual and one collective test. The evaluation will be done on the basis of a project, an oral presentation, and answering questions about the course content so as to check students' learning achievements on both theoretical and application aspects


Bibliografia
Risorsa bibliografica facoltativaModis T., Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker: How to Use Science-Based Methodologies to See More Clearly further into the Future, Editore: Growth Dynamics, Anno edizione: 2013
Risorsa bibliografica facoltativaGrübler, A., Technology and Global Change, Editore: Cambridge, International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Anno edizione: 2003
Risorsa bibliografica facoltativaMakridakis, S., S.C. Wheelwright, and R.J. Hyndman, Forecasting methods and applications, Editore: John Wiles&Sons, Anno edizione: 1998
Risorsa bibliografica facoltativaMeyer, P.S., Yung, J.W. and Ausubel, J.H., A Primer on Logistic Growth and Substitution: The Mathematics of the Loglet Lab Software, Editore: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 61(3), 247-271, Anno edizione: 1999
Risorsa bibliografica facoltativaMartino, J.P., Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, Editore: Mcgraw-Hill, Anno edizione: 1993
Risorsa bibliografica facoltativaIIASA - Logistic Substitution Model http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Software/LSM2/lsm2-index.html?sb=17
Risorsa bibliografica facoltativaKucharavy D., R. De Guio, Application of Logistic Growth Curve, Editore: TRIZ Future Conference 2012. Lisbon, Portugal: Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal, Anno edizione: 2012 http://www.seecore.org/d/20121024rf.pdf
Risorsa bibliografica facoltativaKucharavy, D. and R. De Guio, Application of S-Shaped Curves, Editore: TRIZ Future Conference 2007. Kassel University Press, Frankfurt http://www.seecore.org/d/2007_02p.pdf

Forme didattiche
Tipo Forma Didattica Ore di attività svolte in aula
(hh:mm)
Ore di studio autonome
(hh:mm)
Lezione
15:00
22:30
Esercitazione
12:00
18:00
Laboratorio Informatico
9:00
13:30
Laboratorio Sperimentale
0:00
0:00
Laboratorio Di Progetto
24:00
36:00
Totale 60:00 90:00

Informazioni in lingua inglese a supporto dell'internazionalizzazione
Insegnamento erogato in lingua Inglese
Disponibilità di materiale didattico/slides in lingua inglese
Possibilità di sostenere l'esame in lingua inglese
Disponibilità di supporto didattico in lingua inglese
schedaincarico v. 1.6.1 / 1.6.1
Area Servizi ICT
08/12/2019