The course deals with structural reliability methods for quantification of the probability of failure of structural systems and evaluation of the potential consequences by means of risk analysis for optimal decision making in life-cycle design, assessment, maintenance, and management of civil engineering facilities under uncertainty. The objective is to provide students with sound theoretical bases and essential implementation skills of the principles of probability and statistics for proper application of life-cycle structural reliability and risk analysis methods to real-world engineering problems.

The expected learning outcomes encompass (1) solid knowledge and in-depth understanding of life-cycle structural reliability and risk analysis methods, and (2) ability to apply knowledge and understanding to implementing probabilistic and statistical methods and solving structural reliability and risk analysis problems concerning life-cycle design, assessment, maintenance, and management of civil engineering systems under uncertainty, including buildings, bridges, and infrastructure networks.

I. FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY THEORY. Events and set theory. Mathematics of probability (axioms, theorems, and rules). Random variables and probability distributions. Multiple random variables and joint probability distributions. Functions of random variables. Statistical inference from observational data. Regression and correlation analyses. Bayesian approach.

II. RELIABILITY AND RISK. Structural performance and limit states. Margin of safety and safety factor. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Probability of failure and reliability index. Reliability analysis methods. Monte Carlo simulation methods. Importance sampling. Multiple failure modes. Component and system reliability. Model uncertainty. Safety formats. Semi-probabilistic method. Failure consequences and risk. Target reliabilities. Code calibration. Probabilistic assessment of existing structures. Risk quantification. Risk-informed decision making.

III. ADVANCED TOPICS. Time-dependent structural reliability. Discretized approach. Return period. Hazard function. Natural and man-made hazards. Aging and structural deterioration processes. Preventive and corrective maintenance. Life-cycle reliability-based structural system performance indicators (redundancy, robustness, resilience). Life-cycle cost and risk acceptance criteria.

• SDG9 - INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
• SDG11 - SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES
• SDG13 - CLIMATE ACTION

Requested background: Fundamentals of mathematical analysis; Principles and methods of structural analysis and design.

Grading is based on numerical laboratory assignments and final oral exam. Assignments include numerical applications to life-cycle reliability and risk analysis of structural systems, such as buildings and bridges. In the assignments students should demonstrate their ability to apply knowledge and understanding acquired during the course to implementing probabilistic and statistical methods and solving life-cycle structural reliability and risk analysis problems. The oral exam consists of open questions on the course topics and in-depth discussion of the assignment report aimed at assessing the students’ knowledge and understanding of theory, implementation, and proper application of life-cycle structural reliability and risk analysis methods.

Lecture notes and slides are made available to students in attendance before each class session.