• 098633 - ADVANCED ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS [2ND MOD]

The course offers a systematic overview of environmental decision-making at different levels. The emphasis is on concepts and tools for modeling environmental systems subject to decisions at the local (Module 1) and global (Module 2) scales.
In particular, Module 1 aims at providing to the students the ability to deal with real-world environmental problems by applying water and air quality models, in different decision contexts. The integrated modelling approach, meaning that dealing with the full DPSIR chain is also illustrated as a means to deal with multifacetted decisions.
Module 2 offers an in-depth analysis of policy and decision-making under global change (demographic, land-use, energy, and climate changes). The course develops knowledge and skills for modeling these changes across different spatial and temporal scales, quantifying their impacts, assessing the variety of uncertainties associated to future projections, and developing tools to assist decision makers.
Real world examples and numerical applications will be developed as part of the course projects for both modules.

The course is intended to train students to:
- deepen their knowledge and understanding of environmental models, providing a basis for originality in developing and/or applying ideas, in real-world local (water and air pollution) and global (demography, land-use, energy, and climate change), contexts;
- apply their knowledge and understanding, meaning to acquire a problem-solving ability to successfully deal with new or unfamiliar environmental problems within a broad and multidisciplinary context;
- develop the ability to integrate knowledge from various environmental and social domains and handle their complexity, formulating judgments with limited and uncertain information;
- communicate their conclusions, and the knowledge and rationale underpinning these, clearly and unambiguously, in both written and oral form;
- have the skills to autonomously continue and broaden their study on the application of environmental modelling tools.

The course is delivered via lectures complemented by practical, computer-based tutorials that contribute to the course assessment.

After a common

- Introduction to the course,

The main topics of Module 1 are:

1. Environmental decision making within the DPSIR approach: Environmental planning and management problems at a regional/local level are formulated according to the specific compartment addressed within the EU DPSIR scheme. The role of the model of the environmental system is highlighted.
2. The general transport and dispersion equation.
3. Water quality modelling and planning: Simple BOD-DO models are formulated for a river system, composed of various reaches. Hydraulic model and mass balance equations. The dynamics of bacteria and ecological models. Biological and nutrient models. Integrated land and river models. Lake models. Localization and discharge decisions on rivers. Surrogate modelling and decision-making.
4. Air quality modelling and planning: Non-reactive pollutants in stationary conditions. Climatological models and the role of meteorology. Models of specific situations (coastal, urban canyon). Models for reactive pollutants (Lagrangian, Eulerian, particle chemical transport models). Boundary conditions and nesting. Emission reduction planning. Health impact models. Integrated regional models.
5. CO2 emissions and biomass exploitation: Carbon budget modelling (biomass and soil). Vegetation dynamics and forest management for bioenergy production.

Module 2 continues with:

6. Scenario-based analysis: the traditional top-down approach, from global scenarios to the local scale; demographic projections; climate models and IPCC assessment reports (emission scenarios vs representative concentration pathways vs shared socioeconomic pathways); Integrated Assessment Models for energy projections (e.g., DICE, WITCH); land-use models (e.g., AQUACROP); downscaling techniques.
7. Scenario-neutral analysis: the alternative bottom-up approach, from local vulnerabilities to global scenarios; sensitivity analysis and synthetic generation of external drivers; stress test and scenario discovery.
8. Uncertainty analysis and robust decisions: decisions under risk vs decisions under uncertainty; robustness criteria (e.g., Wald, Hurwicz, Savage, Laplace); optimal sequencing; robustness, flexibility, and adaptive decisions.

• SDG2 - ZERO HUNGER
• SDG7 - AFFORDABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY
• SDG13 - CLIMATE ACTION

Basic concepts about dynamical systems (transient, equilibrium, stability) as well as optimization methods (decision variables, objectives, constraints, solution algorithms) are mandatory to understand the course topics. The course project requires basic knowledge of MATLAB and EXCEL.

The exam comprises:
1) a written test for both Module 1 and 2 on the framing and solving an environmental quality and a decision making problem together with questions related to the topics presented in the lectures to verify the ability of the students to solve such problems, mainly from a theoretical viewpoint. The written test can be repeated to improve the final evaluation. Only the latest will be considered in the computation of the final mark.

Additionally, for Module 1, it requires:
2) The solution to a problem with real data using a computer tool to demonstrate the ability to formulate and solve practical cases and clearly present their conclusions in a short written report;
3) A brief presentation to the class of a scientific paper to learn how to read and summarize a study related to an actual application of environmental quality models, in an oral form.

For Module 2:
4) a course project, which requires applying the acquired knowledge to a real-world problem, developing numerical analysis, and presenting the results in the form of a short scientific paper.

Ch 12. Freely available online (Open Access) from 2017

Ch. 2-3-4-5

Ch 2. Freely available online (Open Access) from 2017